Bakers
Also called: Dough Mixer, Mixer, Pastry Cook, ScalerMix and bake ingredients to produce breads, rolls, cookies, cakes, pies, pastries, or other baked goods.
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What the data says: AI could halve the time on 3 of its 18 tasks, and jobs are projected to grow 5.5% by 2035. How to think about this →
About this projection
BLS builds AI into its projections where the research supports it: “BLS generally applies adjustments based on this research conservatively, where there is convincing evidence for a change.”
It also notes a limit: “BLS projection methods are not designed to capture extremely rapid technological change.”
On its AI exposure groups, BLS says exposure “does not imply job loss.”
Recent conditions
- In 2024, 5.6% of people in this work were unemployed, against 3.8% across all occupations Census ACS 2024
- From Sep 2025 to Aug 2026, 8.4 hires for every 10 job openings in nondurable goods manufacturing, which employs about 35% of people in this work, against 7.3 across all industries BLS JOLTS
One box per opening, filled for each hire; hires beyond the openings are added in a lighter shade. Higher can mean openings get filled, or that people leave often; lower, that jobs go unfilled, or hiring is slow.8.4 this industry7.3 all industries
Median pay by state BLS OEWS May 2025, state estimates
Tap a state for its figures.
Median pay in every state
| State | Median | Middle half earn | Jobs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | $34,030 | $27,830 to $38,720 | 1,880 |
| Alaska | $39,710 | $37,520 to $48,570 | 430 |
| Arizona | $37,700 | $36,210 to $43,520 | 4,000 |
| Arkansas | $30,380 | $28,570 to $33,390 | 2,400 |
| California | $43,120 | $38,040 to $47,500 | 30,020 |
| Colorado | $40,650 | $37,100 to $48,280 | 4,680 |
| Connecticut | $36,460 | $34,540 to $41,990 | 3,670 |
| Delaware | $36,730 | $33,590 to $46,650 | 290 |
| District of Columbia | $44,040 | $38,990 to $47,600 | 1,270 |
| Florida | $35,870 | $30,490 to $39,690 | 12,320 |
| Georgia | $35,010 | $28,580 to $38,650 | 7,350 |
| Guam | $24,320 | $21,080 to $28,640 | 160 |
| Hawaii | $46,710 | $37,840 to $58,180 | 1,580 |
| Idaho | $34,060 | $23,660 to $38,600 | 2,230 |
| Illinois | $37,030 | $34,680 to $44,260 | 12,420 |
| Indiana | $36,150 | $28,790 to $41,360 | 3,600 |
| Iowa | $37,210 | $28,920 to $42,850 | 2,150 |
| Kansas | $34,300 | $29,900 to $38,030 | 1,370 |
| Kentucky | $33,890 | $28,170 to $39,470 | 1,630 |
| Louisiana | $28,020 | $23,540 to $35,690 | 2,450 |
| Maine | $37,390 | $34,550 to $43,410 | 1,380 |
| Maryland | $37,040 | $34,930 to $44,660 | 2,740 |
| Massachusetts | $38,130 | $36,520 to $45,400 | 6,070 |
| Michigan | $35,830 | $30,830 to $39,320 | 7,290 |
| Minnesota | $40,210 | $36,840 to $47,220 | 2,660 |
| Mississippi | $28,920 | $22,290 to $35,450 | 1,300 |
| Missouri | $35,130 | $30,330 to $37,630 | 4,190 |
| Montana | $37,200 | $31,420 to $42,950 | 990 |
| Nebraska | $35,280 | $30,380 to $43,520 | 1,030 |
| Nevada | $39,540 | $34,110 to $47,970 | 2,040 |
| New Hampshire | $39,500 | $36,510 to $45,810 | 880 |
| New Jersey | $36,960 | $34,710 to $45,950 | 8,110 |
| New Mexico | $34,850 | $31,300 to $36,740 | 1,540 |
| New York | $38,660 | $36,150 to $45,450 | 15,130 |
| North Carolina | $34,510 | $27,780 to $37,770 | 9,320 |
| North Dakota | $36,900 | $35,260 to $43,840 | 830 |
| Ohio | $34,560 | $28,300 to $37,640 | 8,890 |
| Oklahoma | $31,460 | $27,060 to $36,350 | 1,980 |
| Oregon | $39,500 | $35,610 to $45,480 | 4,160 |
| Pennsylvania | $36,360 | $29,530 to $43,890 | 10,380 |
| Puerto Rico | $22,170 | $21,840 to $23,270 | 2,530 |
| Rhode Island | $38,140 | $36,400 to $45,780 | 560 |
| South Carolina | $35,460 | $29,240 to $39,120 | 2,940 |
| South Dakota | $38,340 | $33,870 to $44,130 | 330 |
| Tennessee | $34,440 | $23,960 to $40,880 | 5,200 |
| Texas | $33,790 | $28,190 to $37,380 | 16,710 |
| Utah | $36,670 | $30,270 to $39,370 | 3,190 |
| Vermont | $39,980 | $36,370 to $48,460 | 580 |
| Virgin Islands | $29,660 | $29,660 to $32,900 | 100 |
| Virginia | $34,430 | $30,270 to $38,590 | 7,820 |
| Washington | $46,140 | $38,890 to $51,420 | 6,270 |
| West Virginia | $28,480 | $23,070 to $36,490 | 750 |
| Wisconsin | $37,310 | $33,830 to $45,080 | 4,930 |
| Wyoming | $40,000 | $36,190 to $47,160 | 240 |
Nationally: $37,160. Shades run from the lowest state median to the highest; a territory below that range takes the lightest. How to read this
How AI touches the work
What AI could speed up, task by task, and where people already use it.
AI could halve the time on 3 of its 18 tasks
| AI rating | Its main tasks | Share of Claude conversations May 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Not much | Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers. | Not published |
| Not much | Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary. | Not published |
| Not much | Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking. | Not published |
| Not much | Set time and speed controls for mixing machines, blending machines, or steam kettles so that ingredients will be mixed or cooked according to instructions. | Not published |
| Not much | Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods. | under 0.01% |
| Not much | Place dough in pans, molds, or on sheets, and bake in production ovens or on grills. | Not published |
See all 18 tasks
| Not much | Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met. | Not published |
| Not much | Combine measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending, or cooking machinery. | Not published |
| Not much | Observe color of products being baked, and adjust oven temperatures, humidity, or conveyor speeds accordingly. | Not published |
| AI alone | Adapt the quantity of ingredients to match the amount of items to be baked. | under 0.01% |
| Not much | Roll, knead, cut, or shape dough to form sweet rolls, pie crusts, tarts, cookies, or other products. | Not published |
| Not much | Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes. | Not published |
| Not much | Decorate baked goods, such as cakes or pastries. | Not published |
| AI + software | Prepare or maintain inventory or production records. | under 0.01% |
| Not much | Direct or coordinate bakery deliveries. | Not published |
| AI alone | Develop new recipes for baked goods. | 0.02% |
| Not much | Order or receive supplies or equipment. | Not published |
| Not much | Operate slicing or wrapping machines. | Not published |
Ordered by how important O*NET's respondents rate each task (1 to 5) times the share who say it is part of their job. The ordering is ours. 4 of the 18 have a published share of Claude conversations; “not published” means too few conversations for Anthropic to publish a figure.
Where people already use AI
The tasks above say what AI could speed up. This shows what people are using it for. Its 18 tasks fall under 17 work activities that many occupations share, and Microsoft counted how often each one came up in 200,000 conversations with its Copilot assistant in 2024.
- #36 Purchase goods or services
- #37 Determine operational methods or procedures
| Work activity | This occupation's tasks under it | People asked AI for help in 10,000 conversations |
AI did it for them in 10,000 conversations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjust equipment to ensure adequate performance | |||
| Apply protective solutions or coatings | |||
| Evaluate production inputs or outputs | |||
| Operate industrial processing or production equipment | |||
| Purchase goods or services | |||
| Determine operational methods or procedures | |||
| Measure physical characteristics of materials, products, or equipment | |||
| Develop recipes or menus |
Show all 17 activities
| Maintain tools or equipment | |||
| Inspect completed work or finished products | |||
| Clean tools, equipment, facilities, or work areas | |||
| Shape materials to create products | |||
| Maintain operational records | |||
| Monitor equipment operation | |||
| Direct organizational operations, activities, or procedures | |||
| Operate cutting or grinding equipment | |||
| Load products, materials, or equipment for transportation or further processing |
How people in this work use Claude
What people in this work made with Claude % of conversations
- A recipe or meal plan75%
- Advice or a recommendation9%
- An explanation or answer4%
- Data or a spreadsheet3%
- A document or report3%
How they worked with Claude
10% of these conversations were about work. Anthropic Economic Index, May 2026.
How to read this
Work activities come from O*NET, which links every task to the broader activities it involves. Microsoft's figures are for the activity across everyone who used Copilot, not for bakers specifically. Copilot is a general chat assistant; dedicated coding tools are not included, so programming help is under-counted here. Activities are listed by how many of this occupation's tasks fall under them.
The task ratings say whether AI could halve the time a task takes: on its own (“AI alone”), or with software built on it (“AI + software”). They were made by people in 2023 (Eloundou et al.). Claude's share is the task's share of all Claude.ai conversations in May 2026; Anthropic doesn't publish a task with too few conversations. None of these add up to the BLS exposure group, which combines five research measures.
More in the Guide: task ratings · task order · work activities · Copilot figures · Claude
High exposure doesn't mean fewer jobs
BLS projects most occupations in its two most exposed groups to grow: 141 of 206 rated Very high and 165 of 206 rated High. Each dot is one of the 831 occupations BLS rates.
Career moves into and out of this occupation
From moves between occupations found in online resumes, 2002–2016. Career changes only: a first job after school isn't a move.
Where people moved next
of 30,012 moves out
- 1 Chefs and Head Cooks Moderate +6.6% 7%
- 2 Food Service Managers Moderate +5.8% 6%
- 3 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers High -3.7% 5%
- 4 Customer Service Representatives Very high -5.3% 4%
- 5 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Moderate +3.8% 4%
Where people moved in from
of 25,305 moves in
- 1 Cashiers High -6.5% 7%
- 2 Chefs and Head Cooks Moderate +6.6% 6%
- 3 Cooks, Restaurant Moderate +12.1% 6%
- 4 Food Service Managers Moderate +5.8% 5%
- 5 Retail Salespersons Very high -0.3% 5%
Resumes over-represent younger, white-collar job-seekers and moves into management. Schubert, Stansbury and Taska (resume data).
Education and training for the occupation
Census survey (American Community Survey)
- 17% less than high school
- 35% high school
- 23% some college
- 10% associate's
- 11% bachelor's
- 3% master's
Census ACS 2024, all workers in this occupation · 2,252 people surveyed.
Median pay by highest degree full-time, year-round · Census ACS 2024, all workers in this occupation
1 program: Baking and Pastry Arts/Baker/Pastry Chef.
Jobs that require a credential BLS Occupational Requirements Survey 2023
19.6% this occupation
45.3% all occupations
| By kind | This occupation | All occupations |
|---|---|---|
| a license | <0.5% | 19.1% |
| a certification | <0.5% | 5.8% |
| an educational certificate | not published |
Share of jobs whose employer requires it. BLS doesn't say which credential. How to read this
Look up certifications, training and licenses U.S. Department of Labor
- Certification Finder ↗ certifications CareerOneStop lists for this occupation
- Training Finder ↗ schools and programs, nationwide; narrow the place there
- License Finder ↗ licenses by state
- Apprenticeship Finder ↗ DOL lists 4 registered apprenticeships in this occupation. Apprenticeship.gov can't be linked to one occupation, so search for “Bakers” there.
These open in a new tab and send only the occupation's public code. More in the Guide
BLS AI exposure categories (Aug 2026) · BLS Employment Projections 2025–35 · O*NET 31.0 · Task ratings: Eloundou et al., Science (2024) · Microsoft "Working with AI" v1.1 · Anthropic Economic Index (2026-06-26) · Schubert, Stansbury and Taska · NCES CIP–SOC · Census ACS 2024 · BLS JOLTS
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