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Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Also called: HVAC Mechanic (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Mechanic), HVAC Tech (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Technician), Refrigeration Mechanic, Refrigeration Technician (Refrigeration Tech)

Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.

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Median pay BLS, 2025$61,010
Openings a year BLS, 2025–3540,600
Typical education to start BLSPostsecondary nondegree award
AI exposure BLS, Aug 2026 Moderate
Projected job growth BLS, 2025–35 +10.9%

What the data says: AI could halve the time on 6 of its 30 tasks, and jobs are projected to grow 10.9% by 2035. How to think about this →

About this projection

BLS builds AI into its projections where the research supports it: “BLS generally applies adjustments based on this research conservatively, where there is convincing evidence for a change.”

It also notes a limit: “BLS projection methods are not designed to capture extremely rapid technological change.”

On its AI exposure groups, BLS says exposure “does not imply job loss.”

Recent conditions

  • In 2024, 2.7% of people in this work were unemployed, against 3.8% across all occupations Census ACS 2024
  • From Sep 2025 to Aug 2026, 12.8 hires for every 10 job openings in construction, which employs about 76% of people in this work, against 7.3 across all industries BLS JOLTS One box per opening, filled for each hire; hires beyond the openings are added in a lighter shade. Higher can mean openings get filled, or that people leave often; lower, that jobs go unfilled, or hiring is slow.

How to read these

Pay compared with all occupations BLS median wages Pays more than 50% of 825 occupations
lowest-paidhighest-paid

Median pay by state BLS OEWS May 2025, state estimates

$48k$84knot published

Median pay in every state
StateMedianMiddle half earnJobs
Alabama$48,370$40,340 to $60,0208,260
Alaska$77,430$58,700 to $102,170610
Arizona$59,400$47,170 to $73,81010,860
Arkansas$48,110$42,830 to $59,7604,960
California$72,560$58,280 to $90,78035,130
Colorado$65,200$58,050 to $82,0108,940
Connecticut$76,610$60,360 to $86,6503,800
Delaware$62,320$53,060 to $76,7401,730
District of Columbia$84,390$77,730 to $101,940400
Florida$56,670$46,830 to $63,62039,160
Georgia$56,390$46,250 to $66,18012,290
Guam$40,110$34,530 to $49,920240
Hawaii$65,450$55,630 to $77,1901,300
Idaho$56,240$47,250 to $67,0304,550
Illinois$77,410$60,200 to $96,0309,740
Indiana$60,430$48,530 to $79,2208,530
Iowa$60,680$48,540 to $75,9503,840
Kansas$60,460$49,030 to $72,8303,770
Kentucky$58,620$47,780 to $67,5405,100
Louisiana$58,650$44,980 to $65,9905,380
Maine$63,170$57,240 to $76,9202,250
Maryland$70,020$56,280 to $95,7908,560
Massachusetts$77,300$61,070 to $95,0708,200
Michigan$60,850$48,040 to $77,78012,590
Minnesota$76,350$58,860 to $87,1904,200
Mississippi$48,680$39,630 to $61,3902,700
Missouri$59,950$47,040 to $74,6107,220
Montana$60,850$48,150 to $75,7901,230
Nebraska$59,850$47,760 to $74,1603,020
Nevada$60,510$48,390 to $76,5904,170
New Hampshire$73,850$59,540 to $80,0902,560
New Jersey$74,450$56,700 to $96,91010,330
New Mexico$50,270$45,160 to $62,9001,950
New York$74,430$59,720 to $88,13024,430
North Carolina$57,260$46,830 to $64,31015,230
North Dakota$74,490$56,770 to $78,920970
Ohio$62,510$48,410 to $78,19014,150
Oklahoma$57,560$44,190 to $72,1105,650
Oregon$62,940$56,340 to $78,8903,980
Pennsylvania$62,400$50,840 to $74,62015,880
Puerto Rico$31,480$28,840 to $37,4601,140
Rhode Island$67,370$48,760 to $81,6101,450
South Carolina$56,610$46,560 to $62,9906,920
South Dakota$61,390$51,480 to $65,9401,610
Tennessee$55,490$46,990 to $65,5909,740
Texas$57,760$46,800 to $69,86034,730
Utah$58,730$47,320 to $71,9605,580
Vermont$62,150$58,800 to $75,140970
Virgin Islands$45,030$36,220 to $48,95070
Virginia$59,730$47,910 to $73,44014,690
Washington$75,660$60,170 to $93,9707,370
West Virginia$48,850$38,400 to $60,7901,690
Wisconsin$61,710$50,840 to $79,1006,630
Wyoming$54,700$44,550 to $60,550690

Nationally: $61,010. Shades run from the lowest state median to the highest; a territory below that range takes the lightest. How to read this

How AI touches the work

What AI could speed up, task by task, and where people already use it.

AI could halve the time on 6 of its 30 tasks

2 · AI alone could halve the time 4 · AI + software built on it could 24 · Not much
AI ratingIts main tasks Share of Claude conversations
May 2026
AI + software Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area. Not published
Not much Estimate, order, pick up, deliver, and install materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition. Not published
Not much Repair or service heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to improve efficiency, such as by changing filters, cleaning ducts, and refilling non-toxic refrigerants. Not published
Not much Test pipes, lines, components, and connections for leaks. Not published
AI alone Record and report time, materials, faults, deficiencies, or other unusual occurrences on work orders. under 0.01%
Not much Study blueprints, design specifications, or manufacturers' recommendations to ascertain the configuration of heating or cooling equipment components and to ensure the proper installation of components. Not published
See all 30 tasks
Not much Install auxiliary components to heating or cooling equipment, such as expansion or discharge valves, air ducts, pipes, blowers, dampers, flues, or stokers. Not published
AI + software Discuss heating or cooling system malfunctions with users to isolate problems or to verify that repairs corrected malfunctions. Not published
Not much Supervise and instruct assistants. Not published
Not much Repair or replace defective equipment, components, or wiring. Not published
Not much Mount compressor, condenser, and other components in specified locations on frames, using hand tools and acetylene welding equipment. Not published
Not much Install, connect, or adjust thermostats, humidistats, or timers. Not published
Not much Lift and align components into position, using hoist or block and tackle. Not published
AI + software Recommend, develop, or perform preventive or general maintenance procedures, such as cleaning, power-washing, or vacuuming equipment, oiling parts, or changing filters. Not published
Not much Measure, cut, thread, or bend pipe or tubing, using pipe fitter's tools. Not published
AI + software Schedule work with customers and initiate work orders, house requisitions, and orders from stock. Not published
Not much Adjust system controls to settings recommended by manufacturer to balance system. Not published
Not much Install expansion and control valves, using acetylene torches and wrenches. Not published
AI alone Keep records of repairs and replacements made and causes of malfunctions. Not published
Not much Lay out reference points for installation of structural and functional components, using measuring instruments. Not published
Not much Install dehumidifiers or related equipment for spaces that require cool, dry air to operate efficiently, such as computer rooms. Not published
Not much Inspect and test systems to verify system compliance with plans and specifications or to detect and locate malfunctions. under 0.01%
Not much Test electrical circuits or components for continuity, using electrical test equipment. Not published
Not much Connect heating or air conditioning equipment to fuel, water, or refrigerant source to form complete circuit. Not published
Not much Cut or drill holes in floors, walls, or roof to install equipment, using power saws or drills. Not published
Not much Braze or solder parts to repair defective joints and leaks. Not published
Not much Lay out and connect electrical wiring between controls and equipment, according to wiring diagrams, using electrician's hand tools. Not published
Not much Perform mechanical overhauls and refrigerant reclaiming. Not published
Not much Install or repair self-contained ground source heat pumps or hybrid ground or air source heat pumps to minimize carbon-based energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions. Not published
Not much Install or repair air purification systems, such as specialized filters or ultraviolet (UV) light purification systems. Not published

Ordered by how important O*NET's respondents rate each task (1 to 5) times the share who say it is part of their job. The ordering is ours. 2 of the 30 have a published share of Claude conversations; “not published” means too few conversations for Anthropic to publish a figure.

Where people already use AI

The tasks above say what AI could speed up. This shows what people are using it for. Its 30 tasks fall under 25 work activities that many occupations share, and Microsoft counted how often each one came up in 200,000 conversations with its Copilot assistant in 2024.

Tasks AI could speed up6 of 30 tasksEloundou et al. ratings (2023)
Its activities among the 50 people ask AI for help with most2 of 25 activities
  • #8 Read documents or materials to inform work processes
  • #36 Purchase goods or services
Microsoft Copilot (2024), ranked among all 332 activities. The cut-off of 50 is ours.
Work activity This occupation's tasks under it People asked AI for help
in 10,000 conversations		 AI did it for them
in 10,000 conversations
Install energy or heating equipment 0.10#315 0.02#306
Maintain facilities or equipment 7.62#106 1.58#138
Repair tools or equipment 1.87#202 0.18#246
Adjust equipment to ensure adequate performance 20#57 4.31#101
Test performance of equipment or systems 9.09#97 2.28#123
Maintain operational records 2.92#170 0.49#209
Read documents or materials to inform work processes 197#8 47#28
Purchase goods or services 47#36 0.39#220
Show all 25 activities
Confer with clients to determine needs or order specifications 20#56 107#17
Advise others on business or operational matters 11#86 34#35
Connect components or supply lines to equipment or tools 6.37#110 1.33#146
Measure physical characteristics of materials, products, or equipment 6.04#113 1.15#158
Schedule operational activities 4.88#128 2.89#116
Cut materials 2.75#173 0.50#207
Monitor operations to ensure compliance with regulations or standards 2.67#176 4.32#99
Assemble equipment or components 2.35#187 0.43#218
Position materials or components for assembly 1.64#208 0.45#213
Train others on operational or work procedures 1.60#211 29#38
Operate transportation equipment or vehicles 1.06#232 0.05#282
Inspect commercial, industrial, or production systems or equipment 0.84#245 0.32#232
Supervise personnel activities 0.56#266 0.05#283
Install commercial or production equipment 0.50#271 0.16#252
Drill holes in earth or materials 0.44#275 0.08#274
Join parts using soldering, welding, or brazing techniques 0.19#300 0.02#309
Operate lifting or moving equipment 0.09#318 0.02#311
Task: AI alone Task: AI + software Task: not much #: rank among all 332 activities Microsoft measured (#1 = most common; activities that never came up share last place, shown as “tied”)
Where the two sources differ: “Maintain operational records” holds 2 tasks rated AI alone, yet people asked AI for help with it in 2.92 of every 10,000 conversations, #170 of 332.

How people in this work use Claude

What people in this work made with Claude % of conversations

  • An explanation or answer30%
  • Advice or a recommendation28%
  • A document or report17%
  • An analysis or summary9%
  • A plan or strategy3%

How they worked with Claude

73% handed the task off27% worked on it together

42% of these conversations were about work. Anthropic Economic Index, May 2026.

How to read this

Work activities come from O*NET, which links every task to the broader activities it involves. Microsoft's figures are for the activity across everyone who used Copilot, not for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers specifically. Copilot is a general chat assistant; dedicated coding tools are not included, so programming help is under-counted here. Activities are listed by how many of this occupation's tasks fall under them.

The task ratings say whether AI could halve the time a task takes: on its own (“AI alone”), or with software built on it (“AI + software”). They were made by people in 2023 (Eloundou et al.). Claude's share is the task's share of all Claude.ai conversations in May 2026; Anthropic doesn't publish a task with too few conversations. None of these add up to the BLS exposure group, which combines five research measures.

More in the Guide: task ratings · task order · work activities · Copilot figures · Claude

High exposure doesn't mean fewer jobs

BLS projects most occupations in its two most exposed groups to grow: 141 of 206 rated Very high and 165 of 206 rated High. Each dot is one of the 831 occupations BLS rates.

AI exposure and projected job growth, 831 occupationsLow exposure: 134 of 213 occupations projected to grow. Moderate exposure: 151 of 206 occupations projected to grow. High exposure: 165 of 206 occupations projected to grow. Very high exposure: 141 of 206 occupations projected to grow.-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%Low134 of 213 growingModerate151 of 206 growingHigh165 of 206 growingVery high141 of 206 growing11 occupations outside −20% to +25% are drawn at the edge. Click a dot to see that occupation.Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers: +10.9%Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and InstallersAI exposure and projected job growth, 831 occupationsLow exposure: 134 of 213 occupations projected to grow. Moderate exposure: 151 of 206 occupations projected to grow. High exposure: 165 of 206 occupations projected to grow. Very high exposure: 141 of 206 occupations projected to grow.-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%Low134 of 213Moderate151 of 206High165 of 206Very high141 of 20611 occupations outside −20% to +25% are drawn at the edge. Tap a dot.Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers: +10.9%Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Career moves into and out of this occupation

From moves between occupations found in online resumes, 2002–2016. Career changes only: a first job after school isn't a move.

Where people moved next

of 29,157 moves out

  1. 1 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Low +4.2% 10%
  2. 2 Managers, All Other (2010 group) an older group BLS has since split; no exposure group today 6%
  3. 3 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Moderate +3.8% 5%
  4. 4 First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers High +4.1% 5%
  5. 5 Architectural and Engineering Managers High +5.5% 3%

Where people moved in from

of 27,082 moves in

  1. 1 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Low +4.2% 9%
  2. 2 Managers, All Other (2010 group) an older group BLS has since split; no exposure group today 5%
  3. 3 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Moderate +3.8% 4%
  4. 4 First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers High +4.1% 3%
  5. 5 Nursing Assistants Low +2.6% 3%

Resumes over-represent younger, white-collar job-seekers and moves into management. Schubert, Stansbury and Taska (resume data).

Education and training for the occupation

Education people in it hold

Census survey (American Community Survey)

  • 10% less than high school
  • 44% high school
  • 27% some college
  • 13% associate's
  • 5% bachelor's
  • 1% master's

Census ACS 2024, all workers in this occupation · 4,777 people surveyed.

Median pay by highest degree full-time, year-round · Census ACS 2024, all workers in this occupation

Programs that prepare people for it (NCES)
2 programs: Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering Technology/Technician and Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Refrigeration Maintenance Technology/Technician.

Jobs that require a credential BLS Occupational Requirements Survey 2023

94.7% this occupation

45.3% all occupations

By kindThis occupationAll occupations
a license44.6%19.1%
a certification29.5%5.8%
an educational certificate4.4%2.8%

Share of jobs whose employer requires it. BLS doesn't say which credential. How to read this

Look up certifications, training and licenses U.S. Department of Labor

  • Certification Finder ↗ certifications CareerOneStop lists for this occupation
  • Training Finder ↗ schools and programs, nationwide; narrow the place there
  • License Finder ↗ licenses by state
  • Apprenticeship Finder ↗ DOL lists 14 registered apprenticeships in this occupation. Apprenticeship.gov can't be linked to one occupation, so search for “Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers” there.

These open in a new tab and send only the occupation's public code. More in the Guide

See where your own career could go Start by uploading your resume Browse careers

BLS AI exposure categories (Aug 2026) · BLS Employment Projections 2025–35 · O*NET 31.0 · Task ratings: Eloundou et al., Science (2024) · Microsoft "Working with AI" v1.1 · Anthropic Economic Index (2026-06-26) · Schubert, Stansbury and Taska · NCES CIP–SOC · Census ACS 2024 · BLS JOLTS

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