First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
Also called: Assembly Supervisor, Manufacturing Supervisor, Production Manager, Production SupervisorDirectly supervise and coordinate the activities of production and operating workers, such as inspectors, precision workers, machine setters and operators, assemblers, fabricators, and plant and system operators. Excludes team or work leaders.
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What the data says: AI could halve the time on 9 of its 20 tasks, and jobs are projected to grow 1.8% by 2035. How to think about this →
About this projection
BLS builds AI into its projections where the research supports it: “BLS generally applies adjustments based on this research conservatively, where there is convincing evidence for a change.”
It also notes a limit: “BLS projection methods are not designed to capture extremely rapid technological change.”
On its AI exposure groups, BLS says exposure “does not imply job loss.”
Recent conditions
- In 2024, 2.1% of people in this work were unemployed, against 3.8% across all occupations Census ACS 2024
- From Sep 2025 to Aug 2026, 5.4 hires for every 10 job openings in durable goods manufacturing, which employs about 43% of people in this work, against 7.3 across all industries BLS JOLTS
One box per opening, filled for each hire; hires beyond the openings are added in a lighter shade. Higher can mean openings get filled, or that people leave often; lower, that jobs go unfilled, or hiring is slow.5.4 this industry7.3 all industries
Median pay by state BLS OEWS May 2025, state estimates
Tap a state for its figures.
Median pay in every state
| State | Median | Middle half earn | Jobs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | $73,060 | $57,300 to $93,770 | 20,670 |
| Alaska | $77,960 | $51,930 to $107,150 | 1,110 |
| Arizona | $75,330 | $59,490 to $90,790 | 8,720 |
| Arkansas | $63,090 | $50,950 to $78,400 | 11,000 |
| California | $76,840 | $59,400 to $98,900 | 48,550 |
| Colorado | $78,890 | $61,570 to $100,780 | 9,580 |
| Connecticut | $83,150 | $62,890 to $103,500 | 9,150 |
| Delaware | $79,100 | $63,110 to $101,530 | 1,450 |
| District of Columbia | $80,030 | $58,050 to $108,830 | 350 |
| Florida | $63,950 | $50,660 to $82,640 | 27,710 |
| Georgia | $69,170 | $56,350 to $85,090 | 26,190 |
| Guam | $57,440 | $35,500 to $90,730 | 110 |
| Hawaii | $71,990 | $52,810 to $100,620 | 1,500 |
| Idaho | $70,890 | $57,430 to $82,880 | 3,900 |
| Illinois | $75,200 | $59,130 to $91,270 | 29,640 |
| Indiana | $73,950 | $59,350 to $84,140 | 26,870 |
| Iowa | $74,750 | $60,460 to $83,130 | 10,130 |
| Kansas | $74,480 | $60,320 to $85,590 | 7,980 |
| Kentucky | $72,490 | $58,930 to $89,100 | 13,820 |
| Louisiana | $77,520 | $59,420 to $107,400 | 9,350 |
| Maine | $78,970 | $60,570 to $93,160 | 2,970 |
| Maryland | $78,520 | $59,450 to $101,290 | 6,100 |
| Massachusetts | $79,920 | $64,090 to $98,940 | 12,390 |
| Michigan | $72,170 | $57,410 to $82,900 | 26,650 |
| Minnesota | $78,550 | $64,090 to $93,340 | 13,380 |
| Mississippi | $68,720 | $54,110 to $84,620 | 8,230 |
| Missouri | $73,210 | $56,990 to $91,410 | 15,430 |
| Montana | $68,760 | $54,080 to $88,820 | 1,860 |
| Nebraska | $72,200 | $60,210 to $82,520 | 6,040 |
| Nevada | $68,270 | $52,880 to $86,590 | 3,600 |
| New Hampshire | $79,310 | $64,160 to $98,090 | 3,000 |
| New Jersey | $81,110 | $62,740 to $100,190 | 15,040 |
| New Mexico | $64,640 | $49,390 to $93,300 | 2,520 |
| New York | $78,580 | $61,970 to $97,850 | 20,830 |
| North Carolina | $69,640 | $56,790 to $83,180 | 22,240 |
| North Dakota | $76,350 | $60,690 to $89,310 | 1,650 |
| Ohio | $72,160 | $59,090 to $82,250 | 31,980 |
| Oklahoma | $70,000 | $54,750 to $88,710 | 9,570 |
| Oregon | $73,580 | $58,960 to $87,740 | 8,180 |
| Pennsylvania | $74,990 | $59,820 to $84,950 | 28,900 |
| Puerto Rico | $45,100 | $35,840 to $66,600 | 4,030 |
| Rhode Island | $81,650 | $62,920 to $103,540 | 2,660 |
| South Carolina | $77,500 | $62,040 to $92,070 | 14,570 |
| South Dakota | $73,040 | $62,220 to $82,010 | 1,930 |
| Tennessee | $65,310 | $53,320 to $81,950 | 18,960 |
| Texas | $70,140 | $51,990 to $90,160 | 58,930 |
| Utah | $71,220 | $57,590 to $84,780 | 9,040 |
| Vermont | $75,540 | $59,750 to $86,820 | 1,000 |
| Virgin Islands | $57,190 | $49,520 to $73,770 | 60 |
| Virginia | $74,150 | $57,970 to $93,410 | 13,530 |
| Washington | $79,310 | $63,510 to $98,690 | 14,500 |
| West Virginia | $68,990 | $54,450 to $90,180 | 3,120 |
| Wisconsin | $74,840 | $60,790 to $84,230 | 25,500 |
| Wyoming | $90,390 | $64,690 to $125,840 | 1,470 |
Nationally: $74,450. Shades run from the lowest state median to the highest; a territory below that range takes the lightest. How to read this
How AI touches the work
What AI could speed up, task by task, and where people already use it.
AI could halve the time on 9 of its 20 tasks
| AI rating | Its main tasks | Share of Claude conversations May 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Not much | Enforce safety and sanitation regulations. | Not published |
| AI + software | Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals. | 0.01% |
| Not much | Inspect materials, products, or equipment to detect defects or malfunctions. | Not published |
| Not much | Confer with management or subordinates to resolve worker problems, complaints, or grievances. | Not published |
| AI + software | Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs. | Not published |
| AI + software | Confer with other supervisors to coordinate operations and activities within or between departments. | Not published |
See all 20 tasks
| Not much | Evaluate employee performance. | under 0.01% |
| Not much | Conduct employee training in equipment operations or work and safety procedures, or assign employee training to experienced workers. | Not published |
| Not much | Direct and coordinate the activities of employees engaged in the production or processing of goods, such as inspectors, machine setters, or fabricators. | Not published |
| Not much | Recommend or implement measures to motivate employees and to improve production methods, equipment performance, product quality, or efficiency. | Not published |
| Not much | Interpret specifications, blueprints, job orders, and company policies and procedures for workers. | Not published |
| Not much | Observe work and monitor gauges, dials, and other indicators to ensure that operators conform to production or processing standards. | Not published |
| AI + software | Recommend or execute personnel actions, such as hirings, evaluations, or promotions. | Not published |
| Not much | Requisition materials, supplies, equipment parts, or repair services. | Not published |
| AI + software | Keep records of employees' attendance and hours worked. | under 0.01% |
| AI + software | Calculate labor and equipment requirements and production specifications, using standard formulas. | under 0.01% |
| AI + software | Maintain operations data, such as time, production, and cost records, and prepare management reports of production results. | under 0.01% |
| Not much | Set up and adjust machines and equipment. | Not published |
| AI + software | Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads. | Not published |
| AI + software | Plan and develop new products and production processes. | Not published |
Ordered by how important O*NET's respondents rate each task (1 to 5) times the share who say it is part of their job. The ordering is ours. 5 of the 20 have a published share of Claude conversations; “not published” means too few conversations for Anthropic to publish a figure.
Where people already use AI
The tasks above say what AI could speed up. This shows what people are using it for. Its 20 tasks fall under 18 work activities that many occupations share, and Microsoft counted how often each one came up in 200,000 conversations with its Copilot assistant in 2024.
- #8 Read documents or materials to inform work processes
- #36 Purchase goods or services
- #37 Determine operational methods or procedures
| Work activity | This occupation's tasks under it | People asked AI for help in 10,000 conversations |
AI did it for them in 10,000 conversations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plan work activities | |||
| Maintain operational records | |||
| Train others to use equipment or products | |||
| Read documents or materials to inform work processes | |||
| Purchase goods or services | |||
| Determine operational methods or procedures | |||
| Adjust equipment to ensure adequate performance | |||
| Set up equipment |
Show all 18 activities
| Coordinate with others to resolve problems | |||
| Advise others on business or operational matters | |||
| Communicate with others about operational plans or activities | |||
| Maintain safety or security | |||
| Determine resource needs of projects or operations | |||
| Perform human resources activities | |||
| Evaluate personnel capabilities or performance | |||
| Monitor equipment operation | |||
| Direct organizational operations, activities, or procedures | |||
| Inspect commercial, industrial, or production systems or equipment |
How people in this work use Claude
What people in this work made with Claude % of conversations
- A plan or strategy19%
- Advice or a recommendation15%
- A document or report14%
- An explanation or answer8%
- An analysis or summary7%
How they worked with Claude
68% of these conversations were about work. Anthropic Economic Index, May 2026.
How to read this
Work activities come from O*NET, which links every task to the broader activities it involves. Microsoft's figures are for the activity across everyone who used Copilot, not for first-line supervisors of production and operating workers specifically. Copilot is a general chat assistant; dedicated coding tools are not included, so programming help is under-counted here. Activities are listed by how many of this occupation's tasks fall under them.
The task ratings say whether AI could halve the time a task takes: on its own (“AI alone”), or with software built on it (“AI + software”). They were made by people in 2023 (Eloundou et al.). Claude's share is the task's share of all Claude.ai conversations in May 2026; Anthropic doesn't publish a task with too few conversations. None of these add up to the BLS exposure group, which combines five research measures.
More in the Guide: task ratings · task order · work activities · Copilot figures · Claude
High exposure doesn't mean fewer jobs
BLS projects most occupations in its two most exposed groups to grow: 141 of 206 rated Very high and 165 of 206 rated High. Each dot is one of the 831 occupations BLS rates.
Career moves into and out of this occupation
From moves between occupations found in online resumes, 2002–2016. Career changes only: a first job after school isn't a move.
Where people moved next
of 194,205 moves out
- 1 Managers, All Other (2010 group) an older group BLS has since split; no exposure group today 11%
- 2 General and Operations Managers High +5.0% 9%
- 3 Industrial Production Managers High +2.6% 7%
- 4 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers High -3.7% 3%
- 5 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Moderate +3.8% 3%
Where people moved in from
of 224,002 moves in
- 1 Managers, All Other (2010 group) an older group BLS has since split; no exposure group today 9%
- 2 General and Operations Managers High +5.0% 6%
- 3 Industrial Production Managers High +2.6% 6%
- 4 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers High -3.7% 4%
- 5 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers High +5.4% 2%
Resumes over-represent younger, white-collar job-seekers and moves into management. Schubert, Stansbury and Taska (resume data).
Education and training for the occupation
O*NET survey of workers in this occupation
- 14% less than high school
- 33% high school
- 12% postsecondary certificate
- 15% some college
- 14% associate's
- 12% bachelor's
- 1% master's
O*NET 31.0 survey of workers in this occupation · 36 people answered.
Census survey (American Community Survey)
- 8% less than high school
- 39% high school
- 25% some college
- 10% associate's
- 14% bachelor's
- 3% master's
Census ACS 2024, all workers in this occupation · 7,890 people surveyed.
Why the two can differ
O*NET asks about 20 people in each occupation, which makes its shares uncertain, but it reports the exact occupation and counts certificates. The Census survey reaches thousands, but it groups some occupations together and counts degrees only. More in the Guide
Median pay by highest degree full-time, year-round · Census ACS 2024, all workers in this occupation
1 program: Operations Management and Supervision.
Jobs that require a credential BLS Occupational Requirements Survey 2023
20.8% this occupation
45.3% all occupations
| By kind | This occupation | All occupations |
|---|---|---|
| a license | 1.9% | 19.1% |
| a certification | 3.2% | 5.8% |
| an educational certificate | not published |
Share of jobs whose employer requires it. BLS doesn't say which credential. How to read this
Look up certifications, training and licenses U.S. Department of Labor
- Certification Finder ↗ certifications CareerOneStop lists for this occupation
- Training Finder ↗ schools and programs, nationwide; narrow the place there
- License Finder ↗ licenses by state
- Apprenticeships: DOL's list of apprenticeable occupations doesn't include this one.
These open in a new tab and send only the occupation's public code. More in the Guide
BLS AI exposure categories (Aug 2026) · BLS Employment Projections 2025–35 · O*NET 31.0 · Task ratings: Eloundou et al., Science (2024) · Microsoft "Working with AI" v1.1 · Anthropic Economic Index (2026-06-26) · Schubert, Stansbury and Taska · NCES CIP–SOC · Census ACS 2024 · BLS JOLTS
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